12% Yield Gains for Kenyan Farmers

At TomorrowNow, we believe that access to timely, actionable weather information is a game-changer for smallholder farmers.

Today, we’re excited to share powerful results from One Acre Fund’s two-year Digital Weather Advisory Service (DWAS) pilot, supported by tomorrownow.org and with hyperlocal forecast input from Tomorrow.io.

By delivering hyperlocal weather forecasts straight to farmers via SMS, the pilot helped increase yields by 12% on average — proof that climate resilience solutions can reach the last mile and make a measurable difference for food security. Gates Foundation support enabled the hyperlocal forecast capabilities that made this possible.

What We Mean by “Last Mile”

The “last mile” refers to farmers who are often hardest to reach:

• Living in rural areas with limited internet or connectivity
• Facing daily risks from climate variability
• Reliant on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods
  

These farmers are on the frontlines of climate change. By providing simple, localized forecasts directly to their phones, we equip them with the knowledge they need to make better decisions at the farm gate.

Key Results from the Pilot

The randomized controlled trial reached nearly 10,000 farmers across five regions in Kenya and tested three different forecast delivery models. The Weekly + Daily design, powered by Tomorrow.io’s hyperlocal forecasts, performed best. Beyond yields, farmers reported strong satisfaction with the service:

• 98% confirmed they received the SMS messages
• 88% said they understood the forecasts to a large or very large extent
• 72% would recommend the service to their peers
• 88% found the forecasts accurate

And the best part? With SMS delivery costs at just $0.56 per farmer, this model is among the most cost-effective agricultural interventions ever measured by One Acre Fund.

Farmers’ Voices Matter

The impact goes beyond the numbers. Farmers shared how forecasts influenced decisions such as:

• Choosing the right crop variety for expected weather
• Making drainages to manage excess water
• Using furrows to harvest scarce rainwater
• Planning and planting on time at the onset of rains
• Applying fertilizer at the right moment for maximum benefit

Euphrasia Masai, a nurse and smallholder farmer in Kitale, shared her experience, highlighting the importance of listening to farmers’ needs and learning from their on-the-ground expertise:

“The messages tell me exactly what to do — last week it warned of too much rain, so I dug drainages in my maize field. Before, I relied only on tradition, but now I see how these advisories protect my harvest. I even plant beans between the maize rows when rainfall is low — the advice really helps me make the most of my farm.”

In short, these simple, timely forecasts turned into practical on-farm actions that improved livelihoods. As our CEO, Wanjeri Mbugua, explains:

“By pairing Tomorrow.io’s breakthrough technology with our expertise in weather advisory across the African continent, we’ve shown that millions of smallholder farmers can access actionable, livelihood-enhancing weather intelligence and thrive in the face of climate change.”

This pilot proves that climate resilience solutions can reach the last mile. With the right partnerships, we can scale this service to millions of farmers, tailoring delivery to local language and comprehension needs to ensure equitable access.

What’s next

This is just the beginning. TomorrowNow is committed to building on this success by:

• Scaling access to hyperlocal weather intelligence across Africa
• Deepening farmer engagement to continuously improve comprehension and accuracy

Together with partners and supporters, we can ensure that every farmer has the tools to adapt and thrive in the face of climate change.

Read the full impact study here.