Kenya – In the face of unpredictable rainfall patterns, East African farmers—especially those relying on rainfed agriculture – face an ever-growing challenge: knowing when to plant.
The Suitable Planting Window initiative (SPW) is our groundbreaking approach that leverages high-resolution weather forecasts and seasonal predictions to deliver real-time agronomic advice directly to farmers’ mobile phones.
SPW leverages Tomorrow.io’s 14-day dynamic weather forecast and Salient’s seasonal forecast data to predict ‘when to plant’ and other key agro-weather insights related to on-farm decision making
By integrating state-of-the-art weather technologies with practical agricultural insights, SPW is setting the stage for a new era in precision farming—one where timely, science-based decisions can lead to better outcomes for farmers across Kenya and beyond.
Meeting the Challenge with Next-Gen Technology
As the weather patterns become more erratic, getting the timing right for planting is more critical than ever.
Traditional methods, which relied on sparse ground observations, are no longer sufficient for determining the onset of the rainy season. Our solution combines two key data streams:
- Dynamic Weather Forecasts: Utilizing Tomorrow.io’s 14-day atmospheric forecasts (with a high resolution 4km x 4km spatial resolution), the SPW system assesses short-term weather conditions.
- Seasonal Forecasts: Partnering with Salient, the system incorporates seasonal data. These forecasts not only predict likely rainfall totals but also indicate potential extreme weather events and the overall length of the growing period.
These datasets are processed through a decision model that applies thresholds to determine whether conditions are favorable for planting.
The model then generates tiered messages including “Plant Now,” “Plant Half,” “Watch,” or “Do Not Plant,” which are then delivered directly to farmers via SMS.
Voices from the Field: Farmer Peter’s Experience with SPW
The TomorrowNow.org team, together with partners from Regen Organics, recently journeyed to Nakuru County, Kenya to connect with the community and gather invaluable feedback from a sample of 600 local farmers who participated in the SPW pilot phase during the October–December rains of 2024.
During this initial SPW pilot, farmers received messages based on both dynamic and seasonal forecasts, and the real-time insights are already proving invaluable as they navigate a challenging climate.
The pilot utilized the existing digital climate-informed advisory services (DCAS) dissemination infrastructure by the Kenya Agricultural & Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) who, together with TomorrowNow.org, have already reached 5 million smallholder farmers with actionable weather insights delivered on time via SMS.
Feedback from the community has been overwhelmingly positive. Farmer Peter summed up his experience by explaining:
“Just like any other farmer, there’s one question that’s always on my mind – is it the right time to plant? Because of the agro-weather advisories I received last season, I was able to plant on time and manage my crops more effectively.”
This type of feedback not only reaffirms the relevance and utility of the SPW service but also shapes future improvements to the system, ensuring that the
Final Thoughts
Our strong belief is that by merging short-term dynamic weather forecasts with long-range seasonal predictions, we are going to empower smallholder farmers with precise, location-based agronomic advice thus improving yields and reducing the risks of crop failure.
With increasingly unpredictable rainfall, SPW will transform how farmers decide when to plant, ensuring improved yields and enhanced resilience.
- Data Integration is Key: Combining real-time weather data with seasonal forecasts creates a more comprehensive and actionable planting signal.
- Localized Advice Matters: Tailored messages based on detailed grid-level data ensure that farmers receive guidance that reflects their unique environmental conditions.
- Feedback-Driven Innovation: Continuous engagement with farmers helps refine the model, ensuring its long-term relevance and effectiveness.
- Scaling for Resilience: Expanding the SPW system across sub-Saharan Africa will empower millions of small-scale producers to achieve resilience and improve food security.
This blog post is based on insights from the SPW white paper released by TomorrowNow.org on February 6, 2025. Please contact us if you’d like receive a copy of the White Paper.
